KFPL Season 2 Sealed Qualifiers - An Event Analysis

On the 23rd January, the KeyForge Premier League hosted their second set of qualifiers for spaces in Season 2 of the league. These were sealed qualifiers, where each player had a choice between 4 decks - 1 deck from each set. Each player who had a record of 4 wins and 2 losses or better after 6 rounds of Swiss was put into a single elimination bracket, with any byes being allocated to those with the best records. The top 3 players after this process (with the 3rd place player determined through a play-off) were invited to join Season 2 of the KeyForge Premier League.

As the deck selection process was much more pragmatic than the archon choices, this analysis is going to be very different from the first article.This write-up is to examine the options available, the deck choices players made from those pools, and the success of the top 16 players. I will also be spotlighting several case studies.

In this write-up, I will be using the following terms to refer to different groups of decks:

  • ‘Pool’ - this was every deck which was an option in the qualifier (4 per player)

  • ‘Decks played’ - this is every deck which was chosen from the pool and played.

  • ‘Top 16’ - this is every deck which made the top 16 decks in the event after the challenger round of the single elimination bracket. Some decks were given a bye into the top 16 due to numbers and individual performance.

One of the criticisms of sealed as a format is that it is reliant upon the player's luck in pulling a strong deck. Primarily the goal of this analysis is to answer the question: "Were your chances of winning completely dashed if you got a low-SAS set of decks?"

Deck Methodology

The decks were drawn from Decks of Keyforge (DoK) by using a date as a filter - the most recent 1000 decks of each set were downloaded, with no other restrictions, so deck quality was completely randomised. Once downl